As of 1:15 p.m. the SP500 has reached a daily high of 1254.69. This is getting quite close to the 66.67% retracement level of the decline from May 2 to the October 4 low at 1258. This still looks like a counter-current move with more declines to follow.
Update: After rising from 1238.72 at the opening, the SP500 leveld off and spent the afternoon oscillating around the 1253 mark. It topped for the day at 1256.55 shortly before 2:00 p.m., made another stab above 1256 shortly after 3:00, and bounced in at 1254.19 for the close. Momentum is down from a Friday morning peak, slid lower all day, and now is about zero.
On the other hand, the animal spirits were active today: contrary to what I said on Friday, the NASDQ was up about 2.4%, the SP about 1.3%, and the DJI only about 0.75% - inverse to relative blue-chippiness.
Back on the first hand, 1256 is close enough to 1258 to quality as a 2/3 retracement, as far as I'm concerned. Not to say that the recovery is necessarily over quite yet, though - we'll have to see what happens the rest of the week.
No comments:
Post a Comment