Interactive Widget --SPY Mimics S&P 500

Saturday, November 19, 2011

A Slightly Longer View

Here is a look at the SP500 Index since the beginning of August - daily bars.

I've outlined three channel that have been in existence since the 8/09 bottom.  The first, in purple, starts with that bottom.  It was badly breached in late September - early October.  An expanded trend channel, at double the width (not shown) would come close to containing the October 4 low.

The blue channel, up from there, outlines a steep and dramatic retracement.  This trend topped on October 27, and the index has been sliding since.  I've placed the red channel lines around this decline.

I thought the purple channel was gone after the late September drop, but the lower boundary has been touched several times since mid-October.  If the red channel has any validity, this week's penetration of the purple channel bottom signals a new phase of decline.

Looking at the even bigger picture, it's hard to see anything really positive happening.

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