April - Nov 2011

Were you excited by that big end-of-the-month stock market surge this week?  Let's put it in perspective.  Here are daily closing values for the SP500 index.

Several weeks ago I put a red trend channel top line connecting the high points of 7/07 and 10/28.  A parallel channel bottom extends from the 8/08 low.  A  mini-peak on 11/08 reached out and touched the top line again, marking the end of an up-sloping channel dating from the 10/03 low.  After that, the index fell - once again faltering at its mid-line, and bounced off the yellow mid-line of the down-sloping channel on 11/25.  That was last week's surge; it peaked on 11/30, with two days of no follow-through.  Unless there is positive action in the next few days, this increase will have faltered without challenging the channel boundary.   

The heavy red down-slanting line at the top goes back to the peak in 2007.  Longer range views can be seen here and here (second chart.)

Here's another look at the last five years.

The heavy green line slanting up from just below 700 on the ordinate axis connects bottoms all the way back to the early 80's.  The last touch prior to the march '09 piercing was in February 1991.  Should that line fail as support, there is no other support line. 

Anywhere.

I truly believe we are witnessing the advent of The New Dark Ages.